Founding Principal & Managing Director, Craig Robson
For many of us, the start of summer is exciting and it means different things to different people. Whether it's vacations, beaches, baseball and even the occasional heat wave, summer normally means good times.
As a kid growing up I played baseball and one of the rare occurrences within the sport is a triple play. For those of us who are not baseball aficionados, when you get a triple play you make three outs in the same continuous play. In the investment community, a triple play occurs when a company beats their estimates on both the top and bottom line (sales and profitability), while also raising their guidance for future estimates.
Companies are now reporting triple plays at the highest rates we’ve experienced in the past 20 years.1 I mention this as the markets continue to eclipse new all-time highs in the month of June.2 This coincides with some of the strongest global growth forecasts on record in the past 50 years. Charles Schwab reports, the International Monetary Fund forecasts a 6% increase in 2021 3 and according to the World Economic Forum the World Bank expects 5.6%.4
While forecasts are professional opinions which may not always be accurate, an easy way to validate the directionality of these is to look within your local community. Are you seeing new home construction, expansion of roads and highways, job postings? I can personally confirm all of these are very visible around metro Atlanta.
With many positive data points to consider, there are also headwinds which we must acknowledge including, inflation (which I wrote about in my last Craig’s Corner), interest rate volatility, geopolitical risks, and the unexpected, like a global pandemic. To consider the positives without the negatives would be irresponsible and synonymous to going on your summer vacation without planning your itinerary, checking the weather, booking a hotel or transportation.
And, keeping with the summer theme it’s interesting to know that since 1928 the month of July has generated the best S&P 500 monthly price change (1.6%) while June and August also provide respectable returns of .7% and .8% respectively - so much for the, sell in May and go away proverb!5
I will leave you with a quote from one of the greatest baseball players of all time, Babe Ruth, which may easily correlate to both investing and life in general, “Never let the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game.”
Founding Principal and Managing Director